Monday, December 9, 2024
Philip C. Johnson, Ph.D.
What Happened?
Most people have not been thinking about the Syrian Civil War that has been raging since 2011. And that’s because since 2020, it’s been a mostly static conflict, and very much out of the news. But that all changed dramatically last week when rebel forces swept through some of Syria’s largest cities including Aleppo and Hama. By early Sunday morning, Damascus had fallen and President Assad had fled the country. He’s in Moscow now, safe in the arms of Vladimir Putin.
There are videos of people celebrating the end of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. You can also hear lots of people shouting “Allahu Akbar!” Never an encouraging sign. And there are more than a few videos of regional leaders in the west and center of Syria threatening to attack Israel and take control of Jerusalem. Expected, but unlikely.
How Did It Happen?
As I mentioned, Syrian has been embroiled in a civil war since 2011. More than 600,000 people have been killed during this time and many millions have been displaced. Russia and Iran were the backbone of support for the Syrian regime. But Russia has been distracted by their own war with Ukraine. And Hezbollah (backed by Iran) in Lebanon has been decimated by Israel over the last couple of months. This, along with Turkey’s expanded efforts in supporting HTS have all worked together to overthrow the Syrian regime.
Who’s in Charge Now?
The Rebel forces are led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani. HTS is a group that once had links to al-Qaeda. And ISIS. But they have “rebranded,” so…nothing to worry about.
Al-Julani himself has a pretty problematic resume. Tasked by former ISIS leader al-Baghdadi, he established a Syrian affiliate – Jabhat al-Nusra. He’s been involved in suicide bombings. With kidnappings. With mass executions. With coordinating foreign jihadists. With the persecution of Christians. But then, who doesn’t have a few skeletons in one’s closet? Al-Julani has attempted to refashion HTS as a “nationalist movement,” but you’d be more than a little naive to believe that he will usher Syrian into a period of democracy, pluralism and peace.
What’s Next?
Jordan and Lebanon have closed their borders. There is sure to be a massive wave of immigrants (pro-Assad supporters) trying to get out Syria. And this is certain to include an influx of terrorists into neighboring countries and beyond.
Israel has taken control of both the Israeli and Syrian side of Mt. Hermon to assure a buffer zone between Israel and Syria. And Israel’s Air Force has been busy destroying the strategic weapons that the Assad regime had stockpiled – mostly in Damascus- so that they won’t fall into the hands of the Islamists.
And this might be what’s causing prophecy watchers to take a look at Isaiah 17, a passage in the Bible that talks about the destruction of Damascus. Isaiah 17:1 states, “Behold, Damascus will cease to be a city and will become a heap of ruins.” Historically, Damascus has continuously been inhabited, so the “heap of ruins” reference is considered by some to be unfulfilled and possibly tied to future events.
We’re looking at a new chapter in Syrian history and in the entire Middle East. One of my close contacts in Syria told me today that he believes that things will be better. But my intuition (and work in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan) tells me that things are just heating up.
The Middle East has always been complex. If you find it confusing, you’re not alone. But Mario Nawfal, founder of Unfiltered Unbiased 24/x7 News, pretty much hit it on the head with his recent X post:
“TLDR: A Turkish-backed Syrian rebel group is fighting a US-backed Syrian rebel group.
Both these groups fought Assad.
Remember, both the US and Turkey are part of NATO.
The world is a global game of Chess, and the pawns are human lives.”
The Global Nexter 